Importance: Oral tongue cancer (OTC) incidence has increased rapidly among young (<50 years) non-Hispanic White individuals in the US during the past 2 decades; however, it is unknown if age-associated trajectories have persisted.
Objective: To examine US trends in OTC incidence and project future case burden.
Design, setting, and participants: This cross-sectional analysis of OTC incidence trends used the US Cancer Statistics Public Use Database, which covers approximately 98% of the US population, and included individuals with an OTC diagnosis reported to US cancer registries between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2019.
Exposures: Sex, race and ethnicity, and age.
Main outcomes and measures: Estimated average annual percentage change in OTC incidence from 2001 to 2019. Given the substantial incidence rate increases among non-Hispanic White individuals compared with those of racial and ethnic minority groups, subsequent analyses were restricted to non-Hispanic White individuals. Forecasted OTC incidence trends and case burden among non-Hispanic White individuals to 2034.
Results: There were 58 661 new cases of OTC identified between 2001 and 2019. Male individuals (57.6%), non-Hispanic White individuals (83.7%), those aged 60 years or older (58.0%), and individuals with localized stage disease at diagnosis (62.7%) comprised most cases. OTC incidence increased across all age, sex, and racial and ethnic groups, with marked increases observed among non-Hispanic White individuals (2.9% per year; 95% CI, 2.2%-3.7%). Increases among female individuals aged 50 to 59 years were most notable and significantly outpaced increases among younger non-Hispanic White female individuals (4.8% per year [95% CI, 4.1%-5.4%] vs 3.3% per year [95% CI, 2.7%-3.8%]). While all non-Hispanic White birth cohorts from 1925 to 1980 saw sustained increases, rates stabilized among female individuals born after 1980. Should trends continue, the burden of new OTC cases among non-Hispanic White individuals in the US is projected to shift more toward older individuals (from 33.1% to 49.3% among individuals aged 70 years or older) and female individuals (86% case increase vs 62% among male individuals).
Conclusions and relevance: The results of this cross-sectional study suggest that the period of rapidly increasing OTC incidence among younger non-Hispanic White female individuals in the US is tempering and giving way to greater increases among older female individuals, suggesting a birth cohort effect may have been associated with previously observed trends. Recent increases among non-Hispanic White individuals 50 years or older of both sexes have matched or outpaced younger age groups. Continuing increases among older individuals, particularly female individuals, may be associated with a shift in the OTC patient profile over time.