Background: Transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is used to expedite early cardioversion for patients with atrial fibrillation in whom TEE excludes the presence of atrial thrombi. However, the management of patients with atrial thrombi on initial TEE is controversial. Some advocate cardioversion after 3 to 4 weeks of anticoagulant therapy, whereas others perform a follow-up TEE to document thrombus resolution. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to compare the two strategies.
Methods and results: A computer-based decision analysis model was used to compared 2 strategies: No Follow-up TEE-patients with thrombi on initial TEE complete 4 weeks of anticoagulation and undergo elective cardioversion. Follow-up TEE-patients undergo a follow-up TEE after 4 weeks of anticoagulant therapy. If a thrombus is detected, cardioversion is not performed and patients remain in atrial fibrillation; patients without a thrombus undergo cardioversion. Under our baseline estimates, the Follow-up TEE strategy is less costly and slightly more effective than the No Follow-up TEE strategy. The results are most sensitive to changes in the risk of postcardioversion stroke for patients with atrial thrombi on initial TEE who have completed 4 weeks of anticoagulation and to the probability of residual thrombi on follow-up TEE.
Conclusions: In this cost-effectiveness analysis for patients with atrial fibrillation and left atrial thrombi detected on initial TEE, a Follow-up TEE strategy may be more cost-effective than the No Follow-up TEE strategy. However, the decision is particularly dependent on the risk of postcardioversion stroke in patients with undetected residual left atrial thrombi.