Development of a multivariable model to predict vulnerability in older American patients hospitalised with cardiovascular disease

BMJ Open. 2015 Aug 27;5(8):e008122. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-008122.

Abstract

Objectives: To identify vulnerable cardiovascular patients in the hospital using a self-reported function-based screening tool.

Participants: Prospective observational cohort study of 445 individuals aged ≥ 65 years admitted to a university medical centre hospital within the USA with acute coronary syndrome and/or decompensated heart failure.

Methods: Participants completed an inperson interview during hospitalisation, which included vulnerable functional status using the Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES-13), sociodemographic, healthcare utilisation practices and clinical patient-specific measures. A multivariable proportional odds logistic regression model examined associations between VES-13 and prior healthcare utilisation, as well as other coincident medical and psychosocial risk factors for poor outcomes in cardiovascular disease.

Results: Vulnerability was highly prevalent (54%) and associated with a higher number of clinic visits, emergency room visits and hospitalisations (all p<0.001). A multivariable analysis demonstrating a 1-point increase in VES-13 (vulnerability) was independently associated with being female (OR 1.55, p=0.030), diagnosis of heart failure (OR 3.11, p<0.001), prior hospitalisations (OR 1.30, p<0.001), low social support (OR 1.42, p=0.007) and depression (p<0.001). A lower VES-13 score (lower vulnerability) was associated with increased health literacy (OR 0.70, p=0.002).

Conclusions: Vulnerability to functional decline is highly prevalent in hospitalised older cardiovascular patients and was associated with patient risk factors for adverse outcomes and an increased use of healthcare services.

Keywords: GERIATRIC MEDICINE.

Publication types

  • Observational Study
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Activities of Daily Living
  • Acute Coronary Syndrome / diagnosis*
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Depression
  • Female
  • Frail Elderly*
  • Geriatric Assessment
  • Heart Failure / diagnosis*
  • Hospitalization / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Prognosis
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Social Support
  • Tennessee
  • Vulnerable Populations*