Background: Readmissions after hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are common. However, the few currently available AMI readmission risk prediction models have poor-to-modest predictive ability and are not readily actionable in real time. We sought to develop an actionable and accurate AMI readmission risk prediction model to identify high-risk patients as early as possible during hospitalization.
Methods and results: We used electronic health record data from consecutive AMI hospitalizations from 6 hospitals in north Texas from 2009 to 2010 to derive and validate models predicting all-cause nonelective 30-day readmissions, using stepwise backward selection and 5-fold cross-validation. Of 826 patients hospitalized with AMI, 13% had a 30-day readmission. The first-day AMI model (the AMI "READMITS" score) included 7 predictors: renal function, elevated brain natriuretic peptide, age, diabetes mellitus, nonmale sex, intervention with timely percutaneous coronary intervention, and low systolic blood pressure, had an optimism-corrected C-statistic of 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.74) and was well calibrated. The full-stay AMI model, which included 3 additional predictors (use of intravenous diuretics, anemia on discharge, and discharge to postacute care), had an optimism-corrected C-statistic of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.76) with minimally improved net reclassification and calibration. Both AMI models outperformed corresponding multicondition readmission models.
Conclusions: The parsimonious AMI READMITS score enables early prospective identification of high-risk AMI patients for targeted readmissions reduction interventions within the first 24 hours of hospitalization. A full-stay AMI readmission model only modestly outperformed the AMI READMITS score in terms of discrimination, but surprisingly did not meaningfully improve reclassification.
Keywords: acute myocardial infarction; health services research; hospital performance; prediction; readmission.
© 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.