Were the floods in the UK 2007 and Germany 2013 game-changers?

Stephen Platt; Farnaz Mahdavian; Oliver Carpenter; Marcus Wiens; Frank Schultmann

doi:10.1098/rsta.2019.0372

Were the floods in the UK 2007 and Germany 2013 game-changers?

Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2020 Apr 3;378(2168):20190372. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0372. Epub 2020 Feb 17.

Authors

Stephen Platt^{1

2}, Farnaz Mahdavian^{1

3}, Oliver Carpenter¹, Marcus Wiens³, Frank Schultmann³

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Risk Studies, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, 13 Trumpington St, Cambridge CB2 1QA, UK.
² Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd, 25 Gwydir Street, Cambridge CB1 2LG, UK.
³ Risk Research Group, Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hertzstrasse 16, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany.

PMID: 32063168
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0372

Abstract

This paper examines recovery after major floods in the UK and Germany. It focuses on two areas that were badly hit by flooding: Catcliffe, near Sheffield in the UK, and Passau in Bavaria, Germany. It reports on surveys of residents and businesses in each place and on surveys of national flood experts in both countries. The two events were comparable in terms of impacts, levels of preparedness and government response and show similar patterns of speed and quality of recovery. In Germany, it took about 18 months for 90% or more of residents to get back to normal, while in the UK it took a year longer. This difference may be related to funding; in the UK, over 90% of funding came from household insurance while in Germany over 60% came from federal aid, which may have been quicker. In both countries, the economy had recovered to near normal within 12-18 months. The majority of people surveyed in both countries (74% in Germany and 67% in the UK) believe that their homes and businesses are as just as vulnerable now as they were before the respective floods. However, in the UK, half of the respondents thought their neighbourhood was safer and better prepared compared to only 11% in Germany. This may be because substantial progress has been made in improving protection in the UK in areas flooded in 2007. Both floods were considered to be 'game-changers' and resulted in a heightened awareness of flood risk, increased investment in flood defences and an increasing emphasis on citizens taking more responsibility for flood preparedness. However, the Environment Agency in the UK lacks powers to prevent development in flood-prone areas, in Germany there are issues of coordination across large catchments that cross state boundaries and the insurance sector could play a bigger role in 'building back better'. Many homes and businesses continue to be at risk from major floods and more progress needs to be made in making them more resilient. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.

Keywords: disaster; flood; recovery; resilience; storm.