Estimation of COVID-19 basic reproduction ratio in a large urban jail in the United States

Abstract

Purpose: To estimate the basic reproduction ratio () of SARS-CoV-2 inside a correctional facility early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: We developed a dynamic transmission model for a large, urban jail in the United States. We used the next generation method to determine the basic reproduction ratio We included anonymized data of incarcerated individuals and correctional staff with confirmed COVID-19 infections in our estimation of the basic reproduction ratio () of SARS-CoV-2.

Results: The estimated is 8.44 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 5.00-13.13) for the entire jail.

Conclusions: The high of SARS-CoV-2 in a large urban jail highlights the importance of including correctional facilities in public health strategies for COVID-19. In the absence of more aggressive mitigation strategies, correctional facilities will continue to contribute to community infections.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Disease outbreaks; Jail; Public health.