STratification risk analysis in OPerative management (STOP score) for drug-induced endocarditis

Abstract

Background: The opioid epidemic has seen a drastic increase in the incidence of drug-associated infective endocarditis (IE). No clinical tool exists to predict operative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing surgery.

Methods: A multi-institutional database was reviewed between 2011 and 2018. Multivariate logistic regression was fitted in an automated stepwise fashion. The STratification risk analysis in OPerative management of drug-associated IE (STOP) score was constructed. Morbidity was defined as reintubation, prolonged ventilation, pneumonia, renal failure, dialysis, stroke, reoperation for bleeding, and a permanent pacemaker. Cross-validation provided an unbiased estimate of out-of-sample performance.

Results: A total of 1181 patients underwent surgery for drug-associated IE (median age, 39; interquartile range [IQR], 30-54, 386 women [32.7%], 341 reoperations for prosthetic valve endocarditis [28.9%], 316 patients with multivalve disease [26.8%]). Operative morbidity and mortality were 41.1% and 5.9%, respectively. Predictors of morbidity were dialysis (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-2.82), emergent intervention (1.83-4.73), multivalve procedure (1.01-1.98), causative organisms other than Streptococcus (1.09-2.02), and type of valve procedure performed [aortic valve procedure (1.07-2.15), mitral valve replacement (1.03-2.05), tricuspid valve replacement (1.21-2.60)]. Predictors of mortality were dialysis (1.29-5.74), active endocarditis (1.32-83), lung disease (1.25-5.43), emergent intervention (1.69-6.60), prosthetic valve endocarditis (1.24-3.69), aortic valve procedure (1.49-5.92) and multivalve disease (1.00-2.95). Variables maximizing explanatory power were translated into a scoring system. Each point increased odds of morbidity and mortality by 22.0% and 22.4% with an accuracy of 94.0% and 94.1%, respectively.

Conclusion: Drug-related IE is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. An easily-applied risk stratification score may aid in clinical decision-making.

Keywords: cardiac surgery; drug use; endocarditis; valve surgery.