Development and validation of a prediction model for opioid use disorder among youth

Abstract

Background: Youth are vulnerable to opioid use initiation and its complications. With growing rates of opioid overdose, strategies to identify youth at risk of opioid use disorder (OUD) to efficiently focus prevention interventions are needed. This study developed and validated a prediction model of OUD in youth aged 14-18 years.

Methods: The model was developed in a Colorado healthcare system (derivation site) using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Model predictors and outcomes were identified using electronic health record data. The model was externally validated in a separate Denver safety net health system (validation site). Youth were followed for up to 3.5 years. We evaluated internal and external validity using discrimination and calibration.

Results: The derivation cohort included 76,603 youth, of whom 108 developed an OUD diagnosis. The model contained 3 predictors (smoking status, mental health diagnosis, and non-opioid substance use or disorder) and demonstrated good calibration (p = 0.90) and discrimination (bootstrap-corrected C-statistic = 0.76: 95 % CI = 0.70, 0.82). Sensitivity and specificity were 57 % and 84 % respectively with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.49 %. The validation cohort included 45,790 youth of whom, 74 developed an OUD diagnoses. The model demonstrated poorer calibration (p < 0.001) but good discrimination (C-statistic = 0.89; 95 % CI = 0.84, 0.95), sensitivity of 87.8 % specificity of 68.6 %, and PPV of 0.45 %.

Conclusions: In two Colorado healthcare systems, the prediction model identified 57-88 % of subsequent OUD diagnoses in youth. However, PPV < 1% suggests universal prevention strategies for opioid use in youth may be the best health system approach.

Keywords: Adolescent; Opioid use disorder; Prediction model; Prognostic model; Youth.