Seeing the forest for the trees: Predicting attendance in trials for co-occurring PTSD and substance use disorders with a machine learning approach

J Consult Clin Psychol. 2021 Oct;89(10):869-884. doi: 10.1037/ccp0000688.

Abstract

Objective: High dropout rates are common in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) for comorbid posttraumatic stress disorder and substance use disorders (PTSD + SUD). Optimizing attendance is a priority for PTSD + SUD treatment development, yet research has found few consistent associations to guide responsive strategies. In this study, we employed a data-driven pipeline for identifying salient and reliable predictors of attendance. Method: In a novel application of the iterative Random Forest algorithm (iRF), we investigated the association of individual level characteristics and session attendance in a completed RCT for PTSD + SUD (n = 70; women = 22 [31.4%]). iRF identified a group of potential predictor candidates for the total trial sessions attended; then, a Poisson regression model assessed the association between the iRF-identified factors and attendance. As a validation set, a parallel regression of significant predictors was conducted on a second, independent RCT for PTSD + SUD (n = 60; women = 48 [80%]). Results: Two testable hypotheses were derived from iRF's variable importance measures. Faster within-treatment improvement of PTSD symptoms was associated with greater session attendance with age moderating this relationship (p = .01): faster PTSD symptom improvement predicted fewer sessions attended among younger patients and more sessions among older patients. Full-time employment was also associated with fewer sessions attended (p = .02). In the validation set, the interaction between age and speed of PTSD improvement was significant (p = .05) and the employment association was not. Conclusions: Results demonstrate the potential of data-driven methods to identifying meaningful predictors as well as the dynamic contribution of symptom change during treatment to understanding RCT attendance. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

MeSH terms

  • Comorbidity
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Machine Learning
  • Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic* / epidemiology
  • Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic* / therapy
  • Substance-Related Disorders* / therapy