External validation of the 4C Mortality Score for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the RECOVER network

Alexandra June Gordon; Prasanthi Govindarajan; Christopher L Bennett; Loretta Matheson; Michael A Kohn; Carlos Camargo; Jeffrey Kline

doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2021-054700

External validation of the 4C Mortality Score for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the RECOVER network

BMJ Open. 2022 Apr 21;12(4):e054700. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-054700.

Authors

Alexandra June Gordon¹, Prasanthi Govindarajan¹, Christopher L Bennett^{1

2}, Loretta Matheson¹, Michael A Kohn^{1

3}, Carlos Camargo⁴, Jeffrey Kline⁵

Affiliations

¹ Emergency Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, USA.
² Epidemiology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, USA.
³ Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.
⁴ Emergency Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
⁵ Emergency Medicine, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, Michigan, USA jkline@wayne.edu.

Abstract

Objectives: Estimating mortality risk in hospitalised SARS-CoV-2+ patients may help with choosing level of care and discussions with patients. The Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium Mortality Score (4C Score) is a promising COVID-19 mortality risk model. We examined the association of risk factors with 30-day mortality in hospitalised, full-code SARS-CoV-2+ patients and investigated the discrimination and calibration of the 4C Score. This was a retrospective cohort study of SARS-CoV-2+ hospitalised patients within the RECOVER (REgistry of suspected COVID-19 in EmeRgency care) network.

Setting: 99 emergency departments (EDs) across the USA.

Participants: Patients ≥18 years old, positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the ED, and hospitalised.

Primary outcome: Death within 30 days of the index visit. We performed logistic regression analysis, reporting multivariable risk ratios (MVRRs) and calculated the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) and mean prediction error for the original 4C Score and after dropping the C reactive protein (CRP) component.

Results: Of 6802 hospitalised patients with COVID-19, 1149 (16.9%) died within 30 days. The 30-day mortality was increased with age 80+ years (MVRR=5.79, 95% CI 4.23 to 7.34); male sex (MVRR=1.17, 1.05 to 1.28); and nursing home/assisted living facility residence (MVRR=1.29, 1.1 to 1.48). The 4C Score had comparable discrimination in the RECOVER dataset compared with the original 4C validation dataset (AUROC: RECOVER 0.786 (95% CI 0.773 to 0.799), 4C validation 0.763 (95% CI 0.757 to 0.769). Score-specific mortalities in our sample were lower than in the 4C validation sample (mean prediction error 6.0%). Dropping the CRP component from the 4C Score did not substantially affect discrimination and 4C risk estimates were now close (mean prediction error 0.7%).

Conclusions: We independently validated 4C Score as predicting risk of 30-day mortality in hospitalised SARS-CoV-2+ patients. We recommend dropping the CRP component of the score and using our recalibrated mortality risk estimates.

Keywords: ACCIDENT & EMERGENCY MEDICINE; Adult intensive & critical care; COVID-19; EPIDEMIOLOGY; GENERAL MEDICINE (see Internal Medicine).

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Adolescent
Aged, 80 and over
COVID-19*
Hospital Mortality
Humans
Male
Retrospective Studies
Risk Factors
SARS-CoV-2