Background: The mSToPS study (mHealth Screening to Prevent Strokes) reported screening older Americans at risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) and stroke using 2-week patch monitors was associated with increased rates of AF diagnosis and anticoagulant prescription within 1 year and improved clinical outcomes at 3 years relative to matched controls. Cost-effectiveness of this AF screening approach has not been explored.
Methods: We conducted a US-based health economic analysis of AF screening using patient-level data from mSToPS. Clinical outcomes, resource use, and costs were obtained through 3 years using claims data. Individual costs, survival, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were projected over a lifetime horizon using regression modeling, US life tables, and external data where needed. Adjustment between groups was performed using propensity score bin bootstrapping.
Results: Screening participants (mean age, 74 years, 41% female, median CHA2DS2-VASC score 3) wore on average 1.7 two-week monitors at a mean cost of $614/person. Over 3 years, outpatient visits were more frequent for monitored than unmonitored individuals (difference 190 per 100 patient-years [95% CI, 82-298]), but emergency department visits (-8.3 [95% CI, -12.6 to -4.1]) and hospitalizations (-15.2 [CI, -22 to -8.6]) were less frequent. Total adjusted 3-year costs were slightly higher (mean difference, $1551 [95% CI, -$1047 to $4038]) in the monitoring group. In patient-level projections, the monitoring group had slightly greater quality-adjusted survival (8.81 versus 8.71 QALYs, difference, 0.09 [95% CI, -0.05 to 0.24]) and slightly higher lifetime costs, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $36 100/QALY gained. With bootstrap resampling, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for monitoring was <$50 000/QALY in 64% of study replicates, and <$150 000/QALY in 91%.
Conclusions: Using lifetime projections derived from the mSToPS study, we found that AF screening using 2-week patch monitors in older Americans was associated with high economic value. Confirmation of these uncertain findings in a randomized trial is warranted.
Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02506244.
Keywords: atrial fibrillation; cost effectiveness analysis; electrocardiography, ambulatory; oral anticoagulants.