Validation of a risk prediction model for COVID-19: the PERIL prospective cohort study

Shahd A Mohammedain; Saif Badran; AbdelNaser Y Elzouki; Halla Salim; Ayesha Chalaby; Mya Siddiqui; Yehia Y Hussein; Hanan Abdul Rahim; Lukman Thalib; Mohammed Fasihul Alam; Daoud Al-Badriyeh; Sumaya Al-Maadeed; Suhail Ar Doi

doi:10.2217/fvl-2023-0036

Validation of a risk prediction model for COVID-19: the PERIL prospective cohort study

Future Virol. 2023 Oct:10.2217/fvl-2023-0036. doi: 10.2217/fvl-2023-0036. Epub 2023 Nov 7.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Population Medicine, College of Medicine, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
² Department of Plastic Surgery, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.
³ Department of Internal Medicine Hamad General Hospital Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.
⁴ Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
⁵ Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul Aydin University, Istanbul, Turkey.
⁶ College of Pharmacy, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
⁷ Department of Computer Science, College of Engineering, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.

Abstract

Aim: This study aims to perform an external validation of a recently developed prognostic model for early prediction of the risk of progression to severe COVID-19. Patients & methods/materials: Patients were recruited at their initial diagnosis at two facilities within Hamad Medical Corporation in Qatar. 356 adults were included for analysis. Predictors for progression of COVID-19 were all measured at disease onset and first contact with the health system. Results: The C statistic was 83% (95% CI: 78%-87%) and the calibration plot showed that the model was well-calibrated. Conclusion: The published prognostic model for the progression of COVID-19 infection showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration and the model is easy to apply in clinical practice.d.

Keywords: COVID-19; disease severity; prognosis; risk prediction.