Analysing district-level climate vulnerability pattern in Madhya Pradesh, India, based on agricultural and socio-economic indicators

Abstract

Indian agriculture transitioned from a food deficit sector to a food surplus following the Green Revolution. However, the continued progress of Indian agriculture has been hampered by climate change. This research explores the district-wise vulnerability in Madhya Pradesh, India, to climate change by assessing the composite vulnerability index using the agricultural vulnerability index (AVI) and socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI). The study seeks to understand how agricultural and socio-economic factors lead to variations in vulnerability across districts and influence targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies. The trend analysis results present declining rainfall and inclining temperature from 1951 to 2021 in Madhya Pradesh, directly affecting the agricultural sector and human livelihood. The composite vulnerability index (CVI) results revealed that districts with low values (< 0.394), such as Burhanpur and Balaghat, demonstrate reduced susceptibility due to limited cultivation, low reliance on rainfall, lower drought susceptibility, and decreased population density. Districts such as Panna and Bhopal show moderate vulnerability (0.394-0.423), with lower fallow land, reduced rainfed agriculture, and socio-economic vulnerability. Extensive agriculture and marginalised workers' presence influence high vulnerability (0.423 to 0.456) in districts such as Tikamgarh and Indore. Districts like Barwani and Jhabua have the highest CVI values (> 0.456), indicating substantial susceptibility to climate impacts. The cluster analysis validates the results of the vulnerability index. The findings highlight the urgent need for tailored adaptation strategies to address the diverse agricultural and socio-economic indicators creating vulnerability in Madhya Pradesh. The study helps understand regional vulnerability patterns and provides evidence-based policy approaches for resilience to climate change effects.

Keywords: Agriculture; Climate change; Cluster analysis; Socio-economic factors; Vulnerability assessment.